Czech Republic recorded 15.1 percent. Inflation in October on an annual basis. This is a clear decrease, because in September the indicator was 18%. The data was also a surprise, because the median forecast assumed a decrease, but symbolic, to “polishing17.9 percent. What happened?
Czech Republic. Inflation has dropped dramatically
General CPI (Consumer Price Index) the prices Consumer Goods and Services) lowered energy prices, which fell by 38.2%. On an annual basis (still in September it grew by 37.8%). The decline comes as a result of the inclusion of the so-called savings tariff, the government’s program to cool the rise in energy prices, which has been in effect since October.
This is an expected factor, however the data surprised economists and analysts. Also from the Czech Central Bank. Commenting on the inflation data, the Chinese central bank wrote: “The annual increase in consumer prices in October was less than 2 percentage points lower than expected in the autumn forecast of the National Central Bank. The negative skew was attributed to managed prices, which reflected the decline in energy prices. Electricity The result of a statistical study of the savings tariff. This effect was not directly included in the forecasts of the Central Bank ”(by the way, there is an interesting tradition of regular official comments on such data from the Central Bank).
However, the impact of lower managed energy prices is impressive. In terms of monthly value in the Czech Republic, prices also fell sharply by 1.4 percent. So the Czechs are experiencing a monthly contraction. polishing Economists z PKO . Bank BP estimates that, were it not for these lower energy tariffs, inflation In the Czech Republic, it will increase on an annual basis rather than decrease to 18.6%, and on a monthly basis it will reach 1.6%.
This is because food prices have risen sharply – by 25.1 percent. On an annual basis, 3 per cent. From month to month. On an annual basis, the price of flour increased by 53.3 percent, bread by 35.5 percent, poultry by 42.3 percent, milk by 38.1 percent, eggs by 52.8 percent, and sugar by 105.4 percent. – Here we feel a certain affinity with the Czechs.
Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, inflation
In general, however, self-comparison in the region may be more difficult, which has also been pointed out by Polish economists. Pekao SA experts compared inflation in Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. Currently, Hungary has the highest CPI inflation in this group – in October it was 21.5 percent. On an annual basis, supported by food (it is interesting – and not too optimistic about the prospects for combating high prices – that core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is higher than the CPI – 22.3 percent). Poland at 17.9 per cent is in the middle of that rate.
The actions of governments slightly distort the picture of inflation. Pekao economists have demonstrated it in the example of energy prices. The chart below clearly shows the unfreezing of these prices by Hungary and the recent move by the Czech Republic. They remind us that we will see a lull in Poland in this regard next year.
It is also worth taking a look at food prices. The aforementioned Hungarian inflation rose largely due to sharp increases in food prices – by 40%. every year. For example, bread prices increased by 81.4% and eggs by 87.9%.
Eggs (along with potatoes) have just joined the list of products whose prices the government has frozen. Since February, the maximum prices for sugar, wheat flour, sunflower oil, pork shanks, chicken meat and 2.8% for UHT milk have been applied. As you can see, this doesn’t really help. Food is also getting more expensive in Poland and the Czech Republic, but it’s the Hungarians who have the biggest – really huge – problem with this.
In Poland, prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 21.9 percent in October. every year. At the moment, we only know the so-called quick preliminary report Gus on inflation for the past month. The full version will be published next Tuesday at 10:00.
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