The number of apartments for sale is increasing. In March 2022, 53 percent more new ads were posted than in December last year, according to a report by Expander and Rentier.io. In most of the analyzed cities, real estate prices are rising, but at the same time creditworthiness has significantly decreased.
The authors of the report noted a significant increase in the number of advertisements for the sale of apartments. “In March, we recorded 106,925 active apartment sales, of which 42,556 were newly added. There were up to 53% more of these new offers than in December 2021, when the downward trend marked in the second half of the year ended. past ”- they indicated.
In their opinion, the number of ads in March is not yet dangerously high, as the number of active ads in March 2021 was 135,848, which means that it was higher than today. “However, it is worth noting this indicator, because it allows you to monitor problems in the market much faster than the price level, which is reduced only after several months of unsuccessful attempts to sell” – this is stated by the authors of the report.
Apartments for sale – offer prices
As emphasized, the number of sale announcements has not resulted in a significant price drop yet. In 11 of the 17 cities examined, prices were still rising, in the case of six, rates were lower than the previous month. Average prices per square meter in Gdynia decreased – by 3.5 percent. and Poznan – by 2.4 percent.
“In contrast, we set prices at record highs in up to 11 cities. For example, in Warsaw, the level of 13,000 zlotys per square meter was broken for the first time, and 11,000 zlotys per square meter in Gdansk,” emphasized the authors of the report .
In terms of annual value, rates are on average 16 percent. Top. The leader in this regard is Bialystok, where the average price per square meter has increased by 28%. – From 6742 PLN to 8662 PLN. The leaders were also: Szczecin – an increase of 23%, Lodz and Pozna – 20% each. above.
Apartment prices are averages, calculated based on the analysis of 42,556 newly added online sales bids in March 2022.
The report also highlights the situation in the mortgage market. As indicated, the most significant event is the entry into force of the new recommendation of the Polish Financial Supervisory Authority and The seventh increase in interest rates in a row.
“The combination of these two components significantly reduced the availability of mortgage loans. This reduced creditworthiness within one month by about a quarter. Compared to September 2021, the period before the interest rate increase, in many cases the amount of available credit About half,” we read.
The report’s authors explained that one of the requirements of the new KNF recommendation was that from April at the latest, banks had to start accepting the true cost of living to calculate the amount of available loan. “This led to a significant decrease in the creditworthiness of families with children” – he noted.
Experts noted that in the case of a marriage with two children and a net income of PLN 6000, the average loan amount available in September 2021 was PLN 315,000. zloty. Their calculations show that a month ago their number was only 197,000. PLN, and currently only 136 thousand. zloty.
“In return, the same childless spouses will receive an average of 311,000 zlotys, which is more than double if they had two children,” – he added.
Increase loan installments
Increases in interest rates are also accompanied by an increase in WIBOR ratios. As a rule, the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council affect WIBOR, which at the same time translates into the amount of loan installments. The loan interest rate consists of two components: the bank’s margin and the WIBOR ratio. If a housing loan has a variable interest rate, changes in WIBOR affect the amount of the installment.
Some banks use a 3M (three-month) WIBOR rate, which means that the mortgage interest rate is updated every three months, starting from the moment the loan is disbursed. In the case of WIBOR 6M (six months), the interest rate is updated every six months.
WIBOR 3M is currently at 5.54, and WIBOR 6M – at 5.80. The authors of the report noted that when banks take into account their level, the average interest rate on the lowest loans is 10 percent. The private contribution would be at the highest level since 2009. As they emphasized, the interest rate would have been rising faster had the banks not cut loan margins from 10% and 20%. private contribution.
According to experts, we currently have a “not very optimistic picture of the situation.” “In our opinion, the market is facing at least a year of significant slowdown in sales. In the long-term, the situation looks more optimistic. We have an influx of more than 2 million immigrants from Ukraine, some of whom will remain in Poland. Currently they are generating huge demand in the rental market, and this It raises rates and improves the profitability of investments “in apartments for rent, which at some point may lead to the restoration of investment demand” – they state. According to the authors of the report, “In the long run, this situation is likely to translate into the purchase of apartments by Ukrainians, who will tie their future in our country.”
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