The Brazilian industry fears a new surge in international maritime cargo after a shipwreck on the Suez Canal. Major global trade routes. The suspension of navigation in the channel puts pressure on oil prices, with potential impacts on fuel prices.
Landing of the container ship Ever Given, One of the largest ships on the planet, The canal has been closed to traffic since dawn this Wednesday (24), where about 50 ships pass through every day. The accident left a queue of cargo ships waiting to clear the canal.
Occurs In a chaotic situation In global maritime transport, it was erratic as it stalled in the first months of the epidemic and could not yet adjust to the flows. The imbalance had a major impact on the cost of transporting the goods.
In January, cargo from China to Brazil It hit 9,000 homes (About $ 50,400, at current prices), four times the average of the past few years. Values have dropped to $ 6,000 (R $ 33,600) in recent weeks, but are likely to rise again if the crisis continues on the channel.
The impact of Brazil is indirect, as national foreign trade does not use the channel in practice. According to Jose Augusto de Castro, president of the AEB (Brazilian Foreign Trade Association), this will take the form of further increasing transportation costs.
“Isolated, this ship loses overall world trade,” he says, however, as the evolution of the scene depends on the time required to release the flow into the channel, which occurs only after the ship is not built.
“Could not estimate yet, because everything depends on the shipping time, but this is an additional concern at this time, because shipping costs are already very high,” he thought.
According to Castro, the need to divert existing ships is another factor that puts pressure on cargo. The alternative is to extend the route between Asia and Europe around Africa to 7,000 kilometers.
The trend is that the breakdown in maritime traffic will increase as ships spend more time reaching their destinations and the current problem started precisely by disrupting cargo flow in the first half of 2020.
After an outbreak at the onset of an infection Sea routes were blocked Ships and containers were scattered around the world. After the reopening, the restoration effort was undertaken as the demand for supplies, medicines and hospital equipment increased.
Emphasizing that it is too quick for estimates, Abid (Brazilian Textile Industry Association) president Fernando Pimentel acknowledges the risk of rising inventory and adds to the rise in oil amid concerns in the sector.
“If it affects oil, it affects the price of synthetic textile raw materials,” he explained. Brent oil prices rose more than 6% this Wednesday (the 24th) in international talks held in London. At the close of trading, it closed 5.95% higher at $ 64.41 (R $ 360).
The Suez Canal was an oil transport route from the Middle East to Europe, so the possibility of a supply cut affected Brent, which was downhill due to operational problems. Vaccine against Govt-19 In Europe.
With the recent fall – and real appreciation against the dollar – Petropras announced this Wednesday About 4% cuts At the price of petrol and diesel at its refineries. This is the second reduction in petrol and the first in diesel after several months.
Adriano Pierce, director adviser to the CBIE (Brazilian Infrastructure Center), said Wednesday that the oil spill was timely and would not have any impact on the country. But as the vaccination process progresses in the world, he sees the possibility of a new resumption throughout the year.
“With the increase in vaccines, the growth of the economy will return. I think the average oil price this year will be $ 60 per barrel (R $ 336).