The market consensus in Bloomberg indicated a slight weakening in the pace of price growth from 4.7%. On an annual basis in May to 4.6% in June.
Credit Agricole analysts expected inflation to fall in June to 4.4 percent. Q/o vs. 4.7% in May. Lower fuel price growth and lower core inflation slowed price growth in June. On the other hand, high growth in food prices had the opposite effect.
In an interview with PAP Biznes, Beata Javorczyk, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), said one should be “very vigilant” when it comes to increasing inflation in Poland.
In the long run, inflation may be reinforced by the situation in the labor market.
“Inflation readings in 2020 and in April of this year in Poland and Hungary were the highest in the European Union. You have to be very vigilant about this. Inflation is made up of short and long-term factors.
One of the short-term factors driving the CPI higher is the increase in demand – during the pandemic, consumers had no way to spend money and are now catching up. Overlap with the high prices of raw materials in the world and the high costs of garbage disposal in Poland. She said that all this leads to inflation in the short term.
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