By observing the situation on the market in recent weeks, a relative stability of the euro and dollar exchange rates can be observed. Previously, the fluctuations were much larger. So the question is Isn’t it the right time, for example, to get rid of foreign currencies and make possible profits? Especially in the case of people who took advantage of lower prices before the start of the holiday season and in the early days of the war.
Not so long ago, you could buy a euro for 4.60 or even 4.50 zlotys. On Tuesday, the exchange rate exceeded PLN 4.70.
There is a much bigger difference in the US currency. In February, the dollar was below PLN 4, and at the beginning of June about 4.30 PLN. Now it is equal to the euro, and even slightly higher than it.
The zloty remains under pressure
– The determining factor for the zloty in the near future will be inflation trends in the world, and less in Poland. It will directly affect the movements of foreign central banks, especially American and European banks, but also, for example, Czech banks. If inflation continues at high levels there and interest rates continue to rise, they should also rise in Poland, notes ukasz Wardyn, an expert at CMC Markets, in an interview with Business Insider.
It confirms that the recent statements of representatives of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) that The price hike cycle may be overof a security nature.
– Anyway, it backfires on the zloty, because Talking now about the end of the rises may weaken the local currency, not strengthen it – He’s pointing out.
Bartosz Sawicki diagnoses the zloty in a similar way. Analyst cinkciarz.pl emphasizes that the Polish currency is particularly closely related to the economic situation in the eurozone and the fate of the euro.
– When the euro was declining, weighed down by the threat of a gas crisis, it dragged the Polish currency to the bottom. When the mood in the markets calmed, the zloty was partly recovering – Sawicki noted in an interview with Business Insider.
And she adds that it has always been so The risk of a significant increase in energy prices in Europe and its economic consequences will remain the main threat to the zloty in the fall and winter.. Although much will also depend on the intentions of the US central bank. Among the purely Polish problems, he points to the deadlock regarding the mobilization of funding for the national reconstruction plan.
– All this means that the area of appreciation of the zloty appears to be moderate and conditioned by the improvement in the mood for global investment. Large-scale capital may not flow into European assets and currencies until the end of the heat season – cinkciarz.pl analyzer evaluates.
There is room for currency rates to fall
It turns out that there will be no quick recovery of losses on the zloty. So you can keep your euros or dollars in order to diversify your savings or subsequent trips abroad. However, speculatively, there may be room for a higher zloty and lower interest rates by the end of the year.
Łukasz Wardyn admits that most forecasters expect a depreciation of the zloty, assuming higher interest rates in the Eurozone and the US. He’s not that pessimistic, as he assumes that US stock indices won’t break their June lows.
– Then the markets will maintain the current sideways trend and a relatively risk-neutral attitude, including investments in markets such as Poland – assesses an expert CMC Markets.
Bartosz Sawicki sees greater potential in the zloty, which he does not rule out The euro exchange rate will fall below 4.60 PLN at the end of the yearto levels close to the lowest levels recorded after the Russian aggression on Ukraine. There is plenty of room to part with a dollar, which could be cheaper than PLN 0.30 in three months. The expert aims for about 4.45 PLN.
Also in the latest report by Credit Agricole, it can be seen that economists are expecting the currency rate cap to be approaching. At the end of this year, and above all in 2023, they expect the zloty to recover a significant part of its losses. Especially against the dollar, because it may be more difficult with the euro.
It is also worth noting the pound, which is in the wallets of many families. There is still a large group of citizens working in the UK. The British currency is one of the weakest majors this year.
– You could say he rides with the golden wheelchair on one chair. His condition will improve under the same conditions. For this reason, the GBP/Polish zloty exchange rate has less room to depreciate compared to the USD/Polish Zloty and the Euro/Polish Zloty. At the end of December, we will pay about 5.30 PLN to the pound – Sawicki forecast.
author: Damian Somsky, Journalist at Business Insider Polska
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