How is the Ministry of Health preparing for a rise in infections in the fall? When asked about this, the minister did not reveal many details. “Any scenario is possible” – that sounds ominous.
The Minister of Health, Adam Nidzelsky, has given numerous interviews about the pandemic and the possible scenarios that everyone is waiting for as the end of the summer holidays approaches. But since he is not a prophet or a fortune-teller, his sayings are somewhat restrained.
What increases in injuries we will deal with and is it called the fourth wave will bring another wave of hospitalizations, which is difficult to predict today. When asked in the various media what might happen in the early days of the school year, the minister answered briefly: all or nothing.
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Covid and Autumn: Delta Variable, Increase in Infection
Although the number of infections is slowly increasing, the first two weeks of consistent learning should pass relatively quietly. Dr. Pawek Grzysiewski, advisor to the Supreme Medical Council to combat COVID-19, expects that the increase in infection will not occur until around the end of September, after about four weeks of close interaction between students, teachers and parents.
Will this be the moment the government starts imposing restrictions? Adam Nedzelsky announced that the new roadmap for the fall semester will be presented in September. Decisions should be made not only on the basis of the daily number of infections, but also on the basis of the level of vaccination of residents of individual districts.
It is clear on this map that the eastern and southeastern provinces stand out from the rest of the country, so in the darkest of scenarios, the strip from Podkarpacie to Podlasie might be the one to reckon with the most severe limitations again. And what is this most pessimistic development of events? According to the minister, this would be a return to several thousand infections a day. On the other hand, the optimistic version assumes several hundred/thousands of infections. This is why firing is so important, Dr. Grzesiowski comments that many parameters remain unclear.
It is not known, for example, how many people in Poland have been infected (also asymptomatic) with the coronavirus: 10 or 16 million? Some convalescents, as well as those who have been fully vaccinated, will act as a barrier to the virus and will undoubtedly slow down the new wave of infection. Unfortunately, the already diffuse delta variant has complicated the situation. It is more than twice as contagious as the previous diseases. Although vaccinated people become infected much less often than those who refuse to vaccinate, they can infect others as well (particularly in those who develop infection with symptoms such as fever, runny nose and cough, as well as diarrhea or vomiting).
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Fourth wave. Will distance learning return?
Will this lead to an increase in hospitalization? This question also remains unanswered at the moment. Largely dependent on how many people – especially from the so-called eastern wall – vaccinations can still be encouraged.
It is known that with the current increase in infections in Western and Southern European countries, there are no longer any hospital admissions or deaths there. This indicates that in societies with a high rate of vaccinations against Covid-19 disease, the course of the next wave of the epidemic is milder. “The fourth wave and the characteristics of its path will give us a very important answer, what do we do next,” the minister said in an interview with Rzeczpospolita.
Certainly on the table – apart from current restrictions – is the introduction of compulsory vaccinations, the third dose, and if it turns out (as most experts predicted) that coronavirus carriers will be unvaccinated children in younger classes, there is also a return to distance learning or blended learning. – I hope the government will decide, in this case, to regionalize the lockdown – Dr. Paweł Grzesiowski predicts. Or maybe possible restrictions should be introduced within the regions? It can be seen that in regions with the lowest proportion of people vaccinated against the coronavirus, the situation in large cities is much better.
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The virus will reach the unvaccinated
– Larger conglomerates have been targeted by the coronavirus with earlier spikes in infections. This made him the most fortified out there now – Dr. Grzesiowski explains. – Therefore, the virus this fall will have the greatest number of victims in less densely populated areas. It will spread there more slowly, but will eventually reach the unvaccinated.
Meanwhile, the National Immunization Program is collapsing. More and more points are using the doses received from the vaccines, several dozen per week, because even registered people do not report injections. As you know – there are still holidays and vacations! However, it is good to think now about what will happen next.
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