Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

World

Crisis in Ukraine. An American expert on possible invasion scenarios

Crisis in Ukraine.  An American expert on possible invasion scenarios

  • – Russia may already have concentrated enough soldiers and equipment to be able to start this process – says the expert
  • According to him, the direction of the invasion of Kiev is manifested by the location of the most important elements of the Russian forces, north and north-east of the Ukrainian capital.
  • According to Lee, Russia’s goal is to impose restrictions on Ukraine’s sovereignty, for example, through constitutional changes or the implementation of the “modified version of the Minsk agreements.”
  • Russia’s behavior indicates that it is more concerned about the costs of inactivity than the costs of significant escalation in Ukraine, Lee says
  • More important information can be found on Onet homepage

In his opinion, the “punitive attack” of the Russian army is the maximum possible. – It may include a planned withdrawal, or it may end shortly before Kiev, while waiting for its terms to be fulfilled. I don’t know which of these options is most likely – says Lee, an analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, in an interview with PAP. As he added, he foresees a scenario more similar to the war against Georgia in 2008 from Crimea and Donbass.

“Russia may already have concentrated enough troops and equipment to start this process, but it will likely wait and add additional forces,” Lee says. He believes that although a further attack on Ukraine is not a foregone conclusion, this indicates the general behavior of Russia, including making sudden and difficult demands, and the unprecedented nature of the current troop disintegration, relocated from Siberia.

See also  Complications after COVID-19. Cognitive and behavioral disorders in patients

According to him, the direction of the invasion of Kiev indicated the location of the most important elements of the Russian forces, north and north-east of the Ukrainian capital. It is about assembling forces and equipment in Gelnya in the Smolensk region, and smaller groups, for example in the Bryansk region and in Belarus under the pretext of previously unplanned joint military exercises.

The rest of the article is below the video:

According to the expert, the conquest of the territories will be costly to Russia in terms of casualties, but perhaps to a lesser extent than Western policymakers expect. This includes the effect of Russia’s formidable advantage in the air in terms of artillery and long-range weapons, which could lead to a significant deterioration of the Ukrainian forces even before the entry of the ground forces. Lee does not rule out that Russia will decide to fire only from afar or from the air, but he believes that such a scenario is unlikely to achieve the results that Moscow hopes.

What are the results? The analyst claims that Russia’s main concerns are not related to NATO expansion at all, but to the growing power – including military power – of Ukraine as a hostile neighbor with little prospect of changing that country.

According to Lee, Russia’s goal is to impose restrictions on Ukraine’s sovereignty, for example through constitutional changes or the implementation of the “modified version of the Minsk agreements”. In his opinion, achieving these goals is unlikely without a major ground offensive.

See also  United kingdom. Three people were fully vaccinated in hospitals because of the Indian alternative

“Russia’s behavior suggests that it is more concerned about the cost of inactivity than the cost of significant escalation in Ukraine,” Lee says. “If there is an invasion, the Russians will certainly suffer losses, but I don’t think it will change the calculation of their profits and losses,” he says.

We are glad you are with us. Subscribe to the Onet newsletter to receive the most valuable content from us

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

You May Also Like

Tech

Another person familiar with Sony’s plans confirms the killer news for PS5 owners. Horizon Forbidden West is not expected to appear on the market...

Economy

It looks like Tesla wants to use lasers instead of standard wipers in the future. I applied for a patent for this solution. The...

World

The British government has canceled a recommendation to avoid travel to and from the eight regions most affected by the Indian coronavirus variant altogether....

Economy

Farmer reveals government plans for CPK The farmer who issued the documents is a member of the social council of the CPK. As he...