– What is particularly important, in these countries a signal is sent to investors that central banks will fight inflation until they return to the inflation target – says ukasz Wardyn, CMC Markets director for Eastern Europe in an interview with MarketNews24. – We are far from such rhetoric, the Monetary Policy Committee and the National Bank of Poland continue to report that high inflation in Poland is temporary, and that everything is about to recover on its own.
The weak impact of NBP monetary policy on the zloty can be explained by the fact that there is a high risk appetite in highly liquid global markets and the search for investment opportunities.
For the past 52 weeks, the minimum exchange rate of the dollar against the zloty was 3.62 zlotys, and the maximum is 3.96 zlotys. We are somewhat in the middle of this range of exchange rate fluctuations.
– With such high inflation, changes in the zloty exchange rate can be considered merely cosmetic – comments of a CMC Markets expert.
What will be the end of the year for the zloty? Inflation expectations, both on the part of consumers and producers, may be more important than inflation.
– Even advertisers are starting to use inflation in their ads, it means it’s really dangerous – Wardyn adds. – So there is a growing belief that it will be more and more expensive. The more difficult it will be for Poland to return to inflation within the target inflation rate.
It is not necessary to harm the exchange rate of the Polish currency, as long as there is peace in the world financial markets. However, if panic sets in in the US stock market and investors start to run away from risks, the exchange rate of the zloty may change a lot.
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