- Weighted to sell, the average apartment price in Poland’s 15 largest cities rose in August of this year. By 3.8 percent, however, it fell in Wroclaw by more than 4 percent, and also fell in Warsaw for the first time in more than three years.
- Apart from these two cities, sales increased in only two compared to July
- Perhaps the reason for the price drop is the increasing number of unsold apartments
- Redirecting apartments from sale offers to the rental market turns out to be a way to solve the problem in many major cities
- Here, the demand has increased this year due to the arrival of millions of refugees from Ukraine
- More important information can be found on Onet homepage
The average offer price of apartments in Poland is weighted by the number of apartments sold in the 15 largest Polish cities In August this year. 11.9 M. Polish zlotys per square meter by up to 21.2 per cent. over year after year – It results from a data transfer of the site marketpierwotny.pl which monitors the data from the offers for sale of new apartments on the Internet. Compared to July, the average price increase was 3.8 percent.
As you can see, housing prices, which are not included in the inflation basket of CSOs, definitely beat inflation. Let’s just remind you of that The average increase in consumer prices in August was 16.1%. On an annual basis, 0.8%. From month to month.
The most expensive apartments in Warsaw, where the average asking price was 13,000 PLN. 531 PLN per square meter The following places are among the most expensive for private accommodation in Poland: Krakow, Gdansk, and Wroclaw. They are also the four markets with the highest sales.
And when it comes to prices, something that hasn’t happened in months has happened. in Wroclaw Average amount expected by developers per square meter by up to 4.2 percent. Compared to July. There hasn’t been such a big drop in this city for years. In Warsaw, the bid price was reduced by 0.5 percent. And here the price did not fall on a monthly basis at least once for 36 months – according to data from the Rynekpierwotny.pl website.
In the case of the capital of Lower Silesia, the price reduction was accompanied by a significant increase in sales, up to 34%. Month to month, though, sales of these 469 units were down 56% year over year. Well, the golden times for developers have temporarily passed with NBP interest rate increaseThus, the sales result for August in Wrocław can be considered really good. In the number of transactions, Wroclaw was ahead of Krakow and took second place in Poland after Warsaw.
In the capital of our country, sales also increased compared to July – by 23 percent. On an annual basis, 996 units sold means a 17% decrease. However, prices continued to rise in other cities.
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But it should be noted that With the exception of Wroclaw and Warsaw, which reduced prices, sales increased only in Katowice and Rzeszow compared to July. In other cities, he was falling back. Where to look for reasons for price correction and deviations from the expectations of developers in Warsaw and Wroclaw?
Pain threshold exceeded
Even in the number of unsold apartments a month ago. In Warsaw, it rose to 11,000 in July. 590 buildings, This is a record number since December 2020. (11 thousand 951). In August, there were more apartments on offer and there were already 11 thousand apartments. 678- The developer has to pay the following fees for each of them: rent, common lighting, heating, security and repair fund. And pay off your loan for building it. Most of these vacancies await buyers in Warsaw in the cheapest areas: Biachoka (2000 415), Ursos (1000, 148) and Braga-Bodny (1100).
In Wroclaw, there were 5,000 jobs waiting for buyers in July. 444 unsold buildings, the highest number since March last year. (more than 6.7 thousand), but With rising prices, and thus also loan costs and electricity prices, it can now be a pain threshold for developers. Most of Wroclaw’s performances are in the areas outside Śródmieście and the Old Town, i.e. Krzycki (AD 731) and Sije Pol (AD 513).
Prices remained at the level of the previous month in Lublin and Bydgoszcz. Sudden average price increase of up to 45 percent. Up to 8000 549 PLN per square meter was in Opole. The offer there is relatively small, and in August, four apartments were sold, three months without a single deal.
Home sales are down and prices are high
Interestingly, price demand in most cities rises as sales fall. In August this year. In the 15 largest cities, buyers were found for a total of 2,673 buildings, down 168 months (-6%) and 2,311 fewer year-on-year (-46%). You see, people are no longer convinced by the argument that you need to buy quickly, because prices will continue to rise. At a time of impending crisis and rising interest rates, they do not see the right moment to buy expensive housing, the more it is Getting a loan from the bank is getting harder.
in Lublin The number of unsold apartments increased by 185 during the year and 85 during the month, and 1,662 units are currently waiting for buyers. Sales are down as much as 43 percent year over year. In August, as many as 327 new apartments appeared on the show. And how do Lublin developers react to such a situation? They have raised their bid prices. It is 29.5 percent. On an annual basis, up 0.1 percent. From month to month. Now they want an average of 9729 PLN per metre.
can still Understand a similar increase in the lodgeBecause at least the supply of unsold apartments shrunk by 399 during the month, which indicates demand. But how do you understand that when sales do not go up, prices go up or hold up?
In Opole, developers had not sold any new apartments for three consecutive months before August. There were no buyers for four units until August. There are currently 88 new apartments on offer, which is almost a year and a month ago. And the The bid price is 38 percent higher. o/o and 45 per cent mdm. What do local developers rely on? They may not have financed themselves with a floating rate loan that has been rising lately, and they can still wait. Unless they choose to rent. This is what happens in many big cities.
Perhaps it is a measure aimed at the “arrogant effect”, when a higher price encourages you to buy, due to the belief that a product is exclusive? Perhaps more offers appeared in more expensive areas, which affects the average, i.e. the offer is redirected from the mass customer to the one who has more money.
Developers focus on leasing
In Poznan, the sale of new apartments decreased in August of this year. By 57 percent compared to July, and by 77 percent. every year. In August, buyers were found for 110 apartments, but as many as 716 apartments were left on offeralthough 82 new offers were submitted – according to data from the website marketpierwotny.pl. Where are the remaining 694 apartments? (716 less offered plus 82 new minus 110 sold)? Most likely, it was rented.
In recent months, in connection with the war, many refugees in Poland have appeared in Poland, who have to live somewhere, and because of their work they can afford rent. Almost 400,000 people have found work in our country. Ukrainians. In Pozna, on the basis of the special law on war, more than 33,000 PESELs were awarded as of September 1, including 26,000. AdultsSo they may now be paying for the rent for apartments that used to be part of the developers’ unsold offer.
in Wroclaw You can see a similar phenomenon. In August, 1,077 apartments were excluded from the offer, only 469 were sold, and 327 new items were added to the offer this month. By addition and subtraction: 935 apartments “disappeared” from the display of unsold apartments. Here, the “accelerated” PESEL has so far received less than 52 thousand. Ukrainians include 41 thousand. grown ups.
in the boat Sales fell to just 139 units, or 42 percent. compared to July and 54 percent. On an annual basis, supply shrank by 399 units with the addition of 84 new offerings. In other words 344 apartments (399 minus 139 plus 84) may have hit the rental market. PESEL has received 22 thousand in this city so far. Ukrainians include 17,000. grown ups.
in Warsaw The sale of apartments in August was 996 units, 1486 units were submitted for bid, however supply increased by only 88, giving a potential number of 578 apartments have been reclassified from sale to rent. PESEL in the capital on the basis of private law received 140 thousand. Ukrainian citizens, including 112 thousand. grown ups.
There will be more apartments on offer
It can be said that the increase in rental opportunities has enabled developers to redirect some apartments from a sale offer to a rental offer. However, with the emergence of new apartments on offer, it may become more difficult, because the wave of refugees is decreasing. Although developers underestimate the number of new construction starts – In July, they started 8000 only 359 Apartments, the lowest since January – this Apartments will soon begin to enter the market from the moment when the construction site has been dynamically growing.
Assuming, according to information from the Central Statistical Office, that the average construction time from the start of a multi-apartment building takes an average of two years, already in September, October and November, the range of offers peaking in March may be increased next year.
Author: Jacek Frączyk, Journalist at Business Insider Polska
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