We recently wrote that the implementation of the EU climate package Fot 55 was estimated with an increase in the price of fuel to PLN 8 per liter. It turns out that soon we can get higher prices than PLN 6 without it. Goldman Sachs analysts raised their forecast for oil prices and believe it will be $13 more expensive. On the barrel by the end of this year
- This year we were already afraid of the fuel price at PLN 8 per liter in a few years after implementing the Fit for 55 programme. It seems that this year we can expect prices much higher than PLN 6 even without this programme.
- Analysts at US investment bank Goldman Sachs expected an increase in Brent oil prices by $13. per barrel by the end of the year
- They indicate that OPEC’s production capacity is declining and will have problems increasing it, which will reduce the supply in the market
- More such information can be found on the home page of Onet.pl
“Brent crude prices have reached new highs since October 2018, and we expect this rise and our success to continue.” The year-end forecast for Brent oil is $90 per barrel Previously $80 a barrel” – stated in a report cited by ISB News.
After this information, the price of European Brent crude rose by about 2%. And it goes up to $79. barrel. Last Friday, prices hovered around $77. According to these prices, the Orlin and Lotus refineries still count the input of raw materials into the prices of the fuel produced. This means that expectations are fulfilled The price of a barrel rose by $13 by the end of the year. Compared to Friday prices. How is this converted to liters?
One barrel is less than 159 liters, so the price of a barrel has increased by 13 dollars. Increases 8.2 cents per liter. When converting to the average exchange rate of PLN at the National Bank of Poland of 3.93 PLN, we get an increase in the fuel price of PLN 0.22. With 23% VAT Gives approximately 40 grams. Possible increase in fuel prices at Polish stations.
According to the autocentrum website, prices at Polish stations are currently 5.78 PLN per liter of Pb 95 gasoline and 5.62 PLN per liter of economical diesel. The increase in the price of crude oil may translate into The price at the station is approximately PLN 6.20 per liter of gasoline and more than PLN 6 per liter of diesel..
Climate Package Possibility Fit for 55 will raise prices to PLN 8 By increasing production tax rates. As you can see, it would probably be more expensive without it.
Next year without further increases
Next year, the increases will stop after this year’s increases. According to Goldman Sachs experts, Oil will then enter a “bear market”This is mainly due to the temporary increase in production by OPEC countries, Russia and shale drilling. At that time, an agreement between the United States and Iran is also expected (in the base scenario, analysts assume it will happen in April), writes ISB News.
No quick reaction to long-term investment expenditures Reducing the spare capacity of OPEC (We anticipate normalization in early 2022), the inability of shale producers to sustain production growth (given their low reinvestment rate targets), service cost inflation and carbon costs will signal the need for Oil prices will continue to rise in the long term
Goldman Sachs analysts.
They expect the market to return to structural deficit by the second half of 2023. “This pushes us to Raising our oil price forecast for 2023 from $65 per barrel to $85 per barrel– We read more.
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