China has reported the first cases of new ones Corona virus To the World Health Organization (WHO) on the last day of 2019.
But a year ago, on March 11, 2020, the WHO only officially announced that we were in an epidemic.
None of these diseases pose a threat to humanity today. Even one of them (greatness) has been completely eradicated.
But what should happen so that Covid-19 makes history and is no longer considered an epidemic?
The most direct answer comes from the definition of an infection.
According to the Royal Spanish Academy, it is a “contagious disease that spreads to many countries or affects all individuals in a region or region”.
Therefore, it is speculated that Covid-19 will cease to be an epidemic when it does not reach current levels.
But who sets that limit?
Even if the WHO decides that the epidemic is over, will it be every country? Or states or provinces? This will determine when the public health emergency will end and the isolation and restrictions may be lifted.
Stop for infections
A clear and easy way to announce the end of an epidemic if the corona virus that causes Govit-19 is not in the circulation of SARS-Cov-2.
As of March 11, 2021, only 14 countries or territories worldwide are free of the disease, according to the World Health Organization.
The group includes 12 islands located in the Pacific or Atlantic Oceans that had to close their borders to stay away from the virus.
Are there about 119 million people already affected and 2.6 million deaths? That number is increasing day by day.
Therefore, the goal of completely interfering with the transmission chains of the corona virus is very far-reaching, if not impossible.
This difficulty persists even considering that there are eight vaccines to prevent the disease, and that at least 125 countries and territories have already begun to vaccinate their populations.
Even in the United States, the country that has delivered the most drugs to date (more than 100 million), experts warn that it is almost impossible to reach the required vaccine level? More than 75% of the protected population? Achieve the goal of zeroing the spread of the corona virus.
Despite strong immunization campaigns in the United States, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and Chile, the vaccine is coming at a very slow pace elsewhere on the planet.
In addition, new strains of the corona virus continue to emerge, which could reduce the effectiveness of vaccines.
As some would expect, these two factors practically rule out the possibility of defeating Covit-19 by knockout by vaccination.
However, the widespread use of already available vaccines may contribute to another way of ending the epidemic: through collective immunity, also known as herd immunity.
This can be achieved when the majority of the population becomes immune to the virus, which greatly reduces its circulation within the community.
The theory is that if enough people are protected, the most vulnerable will have a lower risk of infection.
According to British scientists, about 60% of people with Covit-19 estimate that joint immunity is achieved when exposed to SARS-Cov-2.
This expression is natural when a person has the disease, or by building up immunity after being vaccinated.
Is this a way to get rid of the infection as more and more people are being protected against the corona virus?
Not in the short term, the WHO hopes.
In late December, the company warned that “in most countries, seroprevalence studies show that less than 10% of the population had Covit-19.”
Meanwhile, although vaccine statistics reveal that more than 300 million doses have been administered so far, the share of 100% immunizations is much lower than that, as most vaccines have the desired effect of two effects.
Although the record for developing vaccines within a year is a major scientific breakthrough, the impact of the campaign is even less if we consider that more than 7.7 billion people live in the world.
Another thing that complicates the level of joint immunity is that people who already have Covit-19 do not need to be protected from the disease.
“It’s not yet clear how long the immunity against this corona virus will last, but based on other viruses in the same family that already exist, we know that people usually infect, and people can re-infect themselves,” BBC World from Columbia University in the US said. Until Professor of Environmental Health Sciences.
“We are still learning about immunity after Govt-19,” the WHO said in a statement.
“Most sufferers develop immunity in the first few weeks, but we do not know how strong or prolonged this reaction is. There are also reports of people with Covit-19 disease being second-guessing,” the text warns.
How does the flu occur?
Faced with many difficulties and obstacles, many scientists believe that getting out of an infection does not happen by eliminating the disease or by achieving a combined immunity beyond 60%.
They bet on a situation where the disease is under adequate control.
In practice, the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths from the infection is no longer considered a health emergency.
Recent magazine article Atlantic In the United States, he estimated, this limit would be reached when less than a hundred deaths a day are recorded.
But why this number? Because this is an approximate rate of what happens each year with the flu.
Joseph Eisenberg, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, said deaths of this magnitude were “considered acceptable by the public.”
The comparison with the flu is not superfluous.
There are many experts who believe that the corona virus will eventually become a local problem, with seasonal peaks, as well as different flu-causing viruses during the coldest months of the year.
As more and more people become infected with SARS-Cowie-2, the spread and infection rates are expected to begin to decline.
At the same time, the virus can become less harmful than other infectious agents: first, they are more aggressive and less dangerous over time.
Of course there will be outbreaks of Govt-19 like the flu, but it is hoped that developing new drugs to treat the infection will pose a lower risk.
“We hope to achieve a control level of infection, and as the virus declines and becomes more severe, this pathogen can reach a balance that is not too bad for most people,” Shaman said.
“It will be a kind of stability that will allow you to live with this virus and at the same time return to some sort of default,” he added.
How many months or years?
Another article published in the journal Science Science In January, scientists at Emory University and Pennsylvania State University in the United States used a mathematical model to reproduce the spread of the virus and estimate how long we will survive in a public health emergency.
The result is that “control of the epidemic” and the development of the Govit-19 epidemic took between one year and a decade.
WHO Director-General Tetros Adanom Caprais was a little more precise.
In August last year, did he estimate that the epidemic would end “within two years”? I.e. by mid-2022.
This would alleviate the Covit-19 crisis slightly more than the Spanish flu, which was the worst epidemic of the 2018 century, lasting between 1918 and 1920.