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Inflation surprised the United States. At the same time it fell and rose. This was not what was expected. “cold shower”

Inflation surprised the United States.  At the same time it fell and rose.  This was not what was expected.  "cold shower"

Last month inflation in United StateWhich in June hit a decade high of 9.1 percent, eased slightly. In August, it fell to 8.3 percent. compared to 8.5 percent recorded in July. This was the second consecutive decline in the annual dynamics of this indicator. slowdown in growth the prices However, it was not as high as expected and the lower percentage could have been mainly affected by the lower rates fuel prices.

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Core inflation rose in the US, despite lower CPI

After excluding normally volatile fuel prices and food What’s called inflation The base rate was up 0.6 percent on the month and 6.3 percent on the yearly comparison. In August, fuel prices in the United States fell dramatically. However, Americans paid far more for apartment rents, new cars, and medical services. Food product prices rose more than 13 percent during the year. Experts note that this is a big surprise, the news of the decline inflation They were very optimistic.

“The outlook turned out to be over-optimistic – US inflation surprises strongly. CPI rose 0.1% MoM and this despite a significant (expected) drop in fuel prices. Plus a cosmetic drop only in the case of used cars (- 0.1) percent m/m)” – Analysts reported mBank.

Inflation in the United States. “Data has been misinterpreted”

In contrast, analysts pico He explained that “the US data indicated that inflation will be slower than the market expected. Inflation will fall more slowly than it was before.” Like mBank experts, they are amazed at the level of the ratio. They explain: “You can see that last month’s CPI data was simply misinterpreted by the (very optimistic) market.”

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XTB Chief Economist Przemysław Kwiecień thinks this is “very bad data”. “Markets have awakened hopes of a deeper drop in inflation – I think the real consensus was below 8%, which is what the market was expecting, so the data is lukewarm,” he wrote on Twitter.

April explains that “fuel has taken a heavy toll on inflation, but other categories continue to drive inflation, including increasing rental costs.” in August Gas In the United States it fell by 10.6 percent. In July, it fell 7.6 percent. on the other side diesel 5.9 percent cheaper. mdm – . data quotes.

Will US interest rates be raised?

Economists have no doubt that Americans would want to raise interest rates again in the face of such a sudden rate of price growth. “Price constancy is showing up again. The market is pricing it accordingly. We see a big jump in yields at the short end of the curve and assess movement by 75 basis points next week. We also expect this to be the case,” mBank analysts predict.

Experts believe a 75 point rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting (the equivalent of our Monetary Policy Board) is practically a foregone conclusion. You can see it on the stock exchange. At 6:41 p.m. the S&P 500 was down 3.03 percent Nasdaq 2.76% On the other hand, the dollar strengthened. At 18:42 it is growing at a rate of 1.72 percent. against the zloty and it costs 4.71660 zlotys.

Inflation in the United States. Joe Biden made the statement

In a statement issued by the President of the White House, Joe Biden He announced a more decisive fight against inflation by lowering prices for medicines, medical services and energy. Biden also emphasized price stability RealityInflation has stopped rising. The US president also referred to a real wage increase last month.

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