Interest rates will rise again. Here are the predictions

makes it The Monetary Policy Council may have no other choice During the meeting scheduled for Wednesday, June 8, interest rates will be raised again.

What can we expect this time? MBank experts expected an increase of 75 basis points.

But it must be admitted that there may be several possibilities on the table. On the other hand, accelerating inflation and a strong labor market speak in favor of a stronger movement. On the other hand, if the EURPLN channel remains as important to the MPC as it was months ago, it will be an argument for a smaller scale of movement. In real terms, in theory, the board has a “full scope for action”. Theoretically, since good GDP in the first quarter is nothing but the rear-view mirror, which we wrote many times, we read.

Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, is in its forecast It indicates that the MPC will raise interest rates by 75 basis points, to 6%, and eventually throughout 2022 will raise interest rates to 7%.

We expect NBP to slow the pace of further monetary tightening to a 50bp hike at the next meeting, with the risk of a 75bp move. Meanwhile, we expect the board to announce in the statement that it will continue to tighten as long as inflation continues to rise. We expect interest rates to peak at 7.00% in September or October of this year. “There is little scope for a rate cut in 2023,” the report wrote.

Experts from PKO BP also have no doubts that the MPC will raise interest rates. They wrote: “The MPC may react to another rate hike (75-100 basis points).”

On the other hand, economist Ravi Mundari estimates that interest rates will stop growing when there are concerns about the GDP and the labor market.

On the other hand, economists expect a stronger rate tightening from ING, who forecast a 100 basis point increase in interest rates and a target level in the 7.5-8.5% range.

High premiums are a growing problem for loan repayments. Sensing the deteriorating mood, the government that recently made a proposal Help for borrowers.

The project includes, among other things, holiday credit records. The government also wants to exit WIBOR and create a new mechanism for calculating interest, as well as providing the Borrower Support Fund with new money.

The credit holiday proposal is very popular. According to the project Borrowers will be able to use it in any two months of the third and fourth quarter of this year And one month in each quarter of 2023.

However, banks are skeptical of this proposal. Vice-President of the Association of Polish Banks, Tadeusz Białek, assessed that the project envisaging credit holidays without income conditions is a very heavy burden on the banking sector, because the government has significantly reduced the number of potential applicants, if there are practically none. Additional conditions for using the aid.

The National Bank of Poland also raised reservations. In his view of the government bill, wrote that Borrower support proposals should only target those with real problems With the repayment of obligations, in accordance with the currently in force standards of assistance from the Borrower Support Fund.

Moreover, the NBU has estimated that the introduction of unconditional credit holidays may hamper efforts to permanently reduce inflation.