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Is the gas coming from the north enough for Poland?

Is the gas coming from the north enough for Poland?

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PGNiG signed a contract to purchase gas from Danish Ørsted in 2023 – 2028. The total volume of purchases is about 6.4 billion cubic meters, which is approximately 1 billion cubic meters. annually. PGNiG also wants to be a recipient of gas from the Norwegian Lotos fields. In addition, it manages its own extraction process. Last year, the company extracted 1.42 billion cubic meters in Norway. of gas, in the future this volume will increase to about 2.5 billion cubic meters, and in the years 2026-27 to about 4 billion cubic meters.

This means that in 2023, about 4 billion cubic meters can flow through the pipeline from the north. Gas. The rest is 4.3 billion cubic meters. (The gas company held 8.3 billion cubic meters of capacity), PGNiG will have to supplement it with immediate deliveries. Some experts questioned the availability of such quantities. And the more the crisis caused by Russia, which launched its invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, the more tension in the markets and the more interest in raw materials from outside Russia.

PGNiG confirms this Baltic Pipes is an important component of the diversification strategy of the gas supply portfolio. – However, the company’s goal has never been to simply replace one supply trend with another. This may be contrary to the very idea of ​​diversification, which assumes the possibility of obtaining gas from several directions, from different suppliers and on the basis of contracts with different terms of validity – the response of the press office of Interia to the question of whether the company will do so. Being able to fill the reserved capacity on the Baltic Gas Pipeline.

Replies were sent on the afternoon of Friday, March 25, which is the day Bowie Majowski resigns as president of the gas company. The company explained that the decision to retain a specific capacity of the Baltic Pipe was made in 2017, after a thorough analysis of the possible sources of gas supply and transportation to Poland in the perspective of 2022. – We will strive to rationally use the reserved capacity, but filling the pipeline is not the goal in itself. Our priority is to ensure a flexible gas portfolio, which, on the one hand, will ensure the stability of supplies, and on the other hand, will allow to adjust the volume of imports with the actual demand for gas fuel, as well as in the event of a rapid increase in demand, for example in winter, PGNiG confirmed.

The company said it had acquired a significant portion of the gas needed to fill the reserved capacity. She added that when contracting, it also takes into account the expected increase in its extraction in Norway, which in 2027 may reach 4 billion cubic meters. annually. – We will contract the necessary fuel to fill the remaining capacity according to the needs – under contracts with various entities and adjust their conditions with the current market situation – the company explained.

It also emphasized that the Baltic Pipeline is one of the elements of the gas infrastructure that allows Poland to diversify, in addition to gas storage, LNG terminal in WuwenoghesiAnd the station in Klaipeda and gas pipelines connecting Poland with neighboring countries, including Slovakia and Lithuania (they are due to start operating this year). This infrastructure creates Extensive opportunities to meet the domestic demand for gas – The company confirms.

Kamel Klishes, an analyst at DM mBank, emphasized that the key to balancing supplies would be whether gas from Russia would continue to flow into Europe via Nord Stream The Ukrainian thread. If this is the case, PGNiG will have no problem ensuring adequate gas supply in the domestic market after the Yamal contract expires.

Starting next year, PGNiG will have more contracted LNG in its portfolio than the terminal capacity at Swinougessi. The capacity of the plant is 6.2 billion cubic meters, while we buy 2.7 billion cubic meters from Qatar. Gas from the US company Chener Energy is less than 2 billion cubic meters. 7.4 billion cubic meters will be sent to Poland from Venture Global, of which 2 billion cubic meters from the beginning of 2023, and the remaining 5.4 billion cubic meters. From the Plaquemines station under construction, depending on when it will be used – enumerate.

He adds that in theory, Plaquemines’ full capacity will be available from early 2024, but it can be assumed that some capacity will be launched earlier, in the second half of next year. As of the beginning of 2023, we will have the option to purchase 6.7 billion cubic meters. Gas from the USA, and from 2024 about 12 billion cubic meters.

The company can locate surplus LNG at Western European terminals, as long as they are not overcrowded. Nor should it be crowded if deliveries from the east continue. However, if Russian gas stops flowing to Europe, it will be difficult to keep additional capacity at the stations. The German market will absorb raw materials from every direction, and LNG terminals in Northern Europe, the Netherlands and France – just like this winter – will be running at 100%. It would be hard to find any capacity to pump gas from the US to European systems and collect it at the German border, or switch to Norwegian gas flowing through the Baltic pipelines.

Kliszcz adds that you can in theory imagine that PGNiG will buy more deposits in Norway within a year, especially since the company did very well last year and has a strong balance sheet. In such a situation, the Baltic Gas Pipeline can provide an additional batch of its own gas. – As in any extreme case, the real script will be the reality we will face in January. Currently, there appear to be several options for filling this pipeline, he says.

Poland uses about 20 billion cubic meters annually. Gas. Domestic production is about 4 billion cubic meters, we buy about 10 billion cubic meters from Russia. We also import LNG into the country, primarily from the United States, Qatar and Norway. The Yamal contract, under which we buy gas from Gazprom, expires at the end of the year. Poland has repeatedly stated that it does not intend to continue buying in this direction.

Monica Borkoska

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