“This is a reasonable decision under the current circumstances,” wrote Pyotr Bojak, chief economist at PKO BP, commenting on the board’s decision.
However, some economists believe that leaving interest rates unchanged was a mistake. “Big delay, bigger mistake” – says Wojciech Stupio, economist at BNP Paribas, referring to Late announcement of the decision.
According to the chief economist at XTB, Arguments for a rate hike were already strong in October.
“The arguments for a rate hike were really strong at the October meeting. This is basically an inflation expectation that doesn’t see a return to the 2.5% target all over its horizon.” – says Przemysław Kwiecień, chief economist at XTB.
“Thus, it seems that additional measures are necessary to bring inflation down to this target, and interest rates are the central bank’s primary tool in this regard. This logic was already in place in October and the market had already expected a rate hike, adding that the board did not change rates, but the president at the conference left The door is open to such a decision – but prices were not raised either, and this may mean the intention to end the cycle of rises once and for all.”
Monetary Policy Committee decision. A strong fight against inflation is necessary
In contrast, ING Śląski Bank economists point out that A serious fight against inflation is essential.
“However, the MPC has not changed interest rates. The key factor is whether the NBP governor will finish the session tomorrow. It has cost Hungary such announcements a lot” – ING economists assess.
“Today, the zloty and bonds are catching up, as the market sees a ‘reset’ on the KPO issue. In the long run, rebuilding confidence requires a tough fight against CPI and prudent fiscal policy,” they wrote.
Let us remind you that the NBP President’s Conference will take place on Thursday at 15.00.
On Wednesday, after the decision was announced, NBP published a statement that included comments on the current state of the economy. as they appeared Information on the latest inflation and GDP forecasts. It was this data that economists have been eagerly awaiting. On its basis, further decisions of the MPC are also likely to be taken. While raising rates, the MPC must also take into account economic growth.
“Well, I guess we already know everything. The NBP sees inflation as a target in 2025 and the MPC sees it as sufficient given the risks to growth. There will be no further increases, although the official statement is already leaving the traditional gatePekao analysts evaluated.
Peter Bojak points out that there is an argument against increasing interest rates Significant deterioration in economic growth prospects in new NBP forecast.
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