In July 2021, negative balances of trade in goods (PLN 3.3 billion), primary income (11.3 billion PLN), secondary income (PLN 0.5 billion) and positive services (PLN 6.7 billion) were recorded in the current account of the balance of payments PLN) – reported NBP in a statement on Monday.
“Preliminary data for Poland’s balance of payments for July 2021 published on September 13, 2021 show that the current account balance was negative and amounted to PLN 8.3 billion. In the corresponding month of 2020, the current account balance was positive and amounted to 2.9. billion zlotys ”- it was written in a statement NBP.
Preliminary data of the Central Bank shows that in July 2021, the value of exports of goods amounted to 102 billion PLN, which means an increase of 14.4 billion PLN (ie 16.5%) compared to the corresponding month of 2020. July, similarly to in June and May of this The year, marked by higher dynamics of imports than merchandise exports.
The value of the import of goods, compared to July 2020, increased by PLN 21.1 billion (ie by 25.1%) and reached the level of PLN 105.2 billion. A faster increase in the value of imports than exports has led to a merchandise trade deficit of PLN 3.3 billion.
NBP also reported that revenue from the export of services amounted to PLN 22.3 billion, and in comparison with July 2020, it increased by PLN 0.6 billion (ie 2.9%). Expenditures amounted to PLN 15.7 billion and increased by PLN 2.2 billion (ie 16.0%) compared to July 2020.
“The balance of the initial income was negative and amounted to PLN 11.3 billion. The amount of the negative balance was determined mainly by the income of foreign direct investors on account of their capital participation in Polish entities, which amounted to PLN 9.5 billion. The income balance was also affected by income payments from portfolio investments. (1.5 billion PLN) and other investments (0.4 billion PLN) ”- this was stated in the NBP statement.
In July, exports from Poland were fueled by car batteries, and imports were supported by higher fuel prices, according to NBP.
In July 2021, the estimated value of exports of goods amounted to 102.0 billion PLN, which means an increase of 14.4 billion PLN, i.e. 16.5%. Compared to the corresponding month of 2020.
“Car batteries had the greatest impact on increasing the value of exports,” NBP wrote.
In contrast, the value of imported goods increased, compared to July 2020, by 21.1 billion PLN, or by 25.1 percent. It reached the level of 105.2 billion PLN.
“The faster increase in the import of goods resulted, among other things, from higher fuel prices,” the National Merchandise Program wrote.
The central bank said the average price of imported oil in July 2021 was 68.4 percent. higher than last year.
NBP also reported that the high dynamics in July were also marked by imports of intermediate manufactured goods, which in recent months accounted for more than half of the value of imports.
“The increase in the value of imports in this category is associated with the continued upward trend in the export of products characterized by a high share of foreign value added,” NBP wrote.
We expect the current account balance to decline to €93 million from €281 million in June, mainly due to a lower trade balance in goods.
Credit Agricile analysts wrote:
We expect export dynamics to decline by 23.9 per cent. YoY in June to 16.4% in July, and import dynamics decreased from 36.3% YoY to 18.2%.
The decline in the export and import dynamics will be the result of negative calendar effects and the fading of the effects of the low base from a year ago. In our opinion, the data on the balance of payments will be neutral with respect to the zloty exchange rate and Polish bond yields.
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