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Poland’s GDP in 2021 will reach 4.5 percent (5.4 percent in 2022) – the new forecast by Standard & Poor’s. Analysts correct their forecasts. How much will inflation and what about interest rates?

Nowe prognozy wzrostu PKB w Polsce – czerwiec 2021 (fot. Shutterstock)

Global rating agency Standard & Poor’s raised its forecast for Poland’s GDP growth in 2021 to 4.5 per cent. From 3.4% and in 2022 to 5.4%. From 4.4% – according to an S&P report. The agency expects the first rate hike. in Poland in mid-2022, and expects in the subsequent period the reference rate to return to 1.5%

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For 2023, Standard & Poor’s forecast The Polish economy grew by 3.3% (+0.3 percentage points compared to the previous round at the end of March), and for 2024 by 2.2%. (-0.5 percentage point).

Consumption drives the economy

“Given greater clarity regarding how EU funds will be used to rebuild the economy and better-than-expected economic results in the first quarter, we are raising our GDP growth forecast for Poland. (…) Consumption turns out to be resistant to insurance It should accelerate in the coming months as the epidemic situation improves. We expect EU funds to start supporting growth from the second half of this year, and to a greater extent in 2022.” – wrote in the report from the end of June.

According to S&P, the main risks to the forecast are potential delays in implementation From the National Reconstruction Plan. The agency assumes that within the horizon of expectations, EU funds support the recovery after the pandemic الانتعاش GDP will increase Poland by 6 percent Regarding the level of GDP in 2020.

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Standard & Poor’s on inflation in Poland

Standard & Poor’s thinks so Inflation in Poland will remain at a high level for a longer periodTaking into account the situation in the labor market, wage pressures, fiscal policy may remain loose “at least” until the parliamentary elections in 2023 and stimulus from the EU reconstruction fund. In this context, the central bank will raise interest rates earlier than previously expected, possibly in the middle of 2022. – Added.

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The CPI inflation rate forecast by Standard & Poor’s in Poland is expected to reach 3.8 percent this year, 2.7 percent in 2022 and 2.4 percent. in 2023

At the end of 2022, Standard & Poor’s expects Reference price NBP at the 0.50 percent level. and 1.50 per cent at the end of 2023, which will end the easing cycle.

Previously, Standard & Poor’s had forecast increases in 2023 at the earliest – a total of 15 basis points over this period.

See also: Experts: wages are back on the pre-pandemic track



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