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Russian nuclear threats. TIT ANALYSIS: The Kremlin softens its tone

Russian nuclear threats.  TIT ANALYSIS: The Kremlin softens its tone

Senior Kremlin officials and Russian leaders are toning down rhetoric about Russia’s use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the American Institute for the Studies of War (ISW) said in a recent study. According to experts, this change shows that Russian leaders are aware of the huge costs and small operational benefits of such an attack.

Putin and Kremlin officials have intensified weakly hidden but unspoken threats to use nuclear weapons since the September 30 announcement of the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian provinces. Russia The Institute for the Study of War states in its latest report.

The American Institute adds that such rhetoric may have been meant to be a force Ukraine to negotiate and intimidate the West and thus reduce support for Kiev, diverting attention from Russia’s failures at the front and problems with mobilization.

Transparency International asserts that “the Kremlin’s nuclear threats have not undermined the political and social will of Ukraine to continue opposing the Russian invasion.” He adds that the Kremlin has also failed to intimidate countries that support Ukraine.

TVN24.pl report: Russia’s attack on Ukraine

The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Wednesday asserting that Russia is “strongly guided by the assumption that nuclear war will not be allowed.” Putin himself said at the end of October that Moscow had never considered the possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Analysts about the Kremlin’s change of tone

As noted in the CEI analysis, behind-the-scenes conversations with representatives of the United States and its allies may have also contributed to the apparent change in the tone of statements made by Russian decision-makers.

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According to the American media National Security Adviser to US President Joe Biden Jake Sullivan He recently had secret talks with the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, and the foreign policy advisor to the President of Russia, Yuri Ushakov. The purpose of these contacts was to reduce the risks of using nuclear weapons.

The Chinaits leader Xi Jinping He called to oppose threats to use such weapons, write US analysts.

Russian President Vladimir PutinEvgeny Pyatov / PAP / IPA

After the announcement of the annexation

The American think tank notes that Putin’s announcement of the annexation of four Ukrainian provinces, including areas not occupied by the Russians, may have sparked confusion among some Russian leaders about how to implement Russia’s official nuclear doctrine. As he asserts, Russia has the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of an existential threat to the state during a conventional conflict. According to the Kremlin’s version, all the current front lines in Ukraine are already on Russian territory, and Putin did not specify what in the current situation could be considered an attack on his country.

“In the opinion of the Higher Education Institute, Russia’s use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine remains unlikely,” the report said. US government officials previously reported that no movement of Russian nuclear forces and preparations for a possible attack had been detected.

The center estimates that threats to use nuclear weapons still appear in Russian television propaganda, but this is part of the chauvinistic discourse directed at the Russians themselves, which aims to highlight the strength of the state despite its defeats in the war with Ukraine.

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Main image source: Evgeny Pyatov / PAP / IPA

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