It is getting more and more difficult for companies to find employees and struggle for them with salaries – these conclusions can be drawn from the data of the Central Statistical Office. At companies, wages rose 9.8 percent in June. On an annual basis, employment increased by 2.8 percent. One of the reasons may be the problems of returning economic migrants from Ukraine.
- Wages are rising faster than economists expect
- In June it was higher in companies by 9.8 percent. On an annual basis, employment increased by 2.8 percent.
- The reasons for the increases may be the difficulties experienced by employees from Ukraine in connection with the epidemic and problems related to the completion of employees by companies
- Wage growth is higher than inflation and is likely to translate into consumption. In such a situation, the price dynamics may accelerate and the monetary policy board may raise interest rates
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“In June 2021, the average employment in the business sector was 2.8% higher YoY and amounted to 6,359.3 thousand, while the average monthly salary was 9.8% higher YoY and It amounted to PLN 5802.42 (total) ”- the Central Bureau of Statistics announced in a press release.
This means that wages are rising faster than economists expected. Their average forecast was just 9.3 percent. On an annual basis, employment growth forecasts hovered around 2.7 percent. xy.
Mean total PLN 5802.42 for employment contract I pay 4179 PLN net. The employer must pay this wage with his contributions PLN 6,991.00 PLN. The difference between the employer’s cost and the net salary is PLN 2,811 – this is the burden of taxes and social security on the average wage. That’s as much as 40.2 percent. What the employer pays.
Average Converted from Total Amounts Net salary for contract employment increased 9.6 percent year-over-year. (by PLN 365), and compared to May by 2.9 percent. (by PLN 117).
The highest nominal increases in history
This high percentage of annual wage increases has not been recorded in companies as in the last three months since October 2008. Calculated in nominal terms, Annual average salary increase of over PLN 500 – between April and June – never seen before.
Compared to May, wages increased by 165 PLN, or 2.9 percent.
For clarity, the CSO statement mentions employment and wages in companies with at least 10 employees, in other words, in companies excluding small businesses.
This is coupled with unemployment figures In June, according to preliminary data, less than 1 million people fell, it can be inferred Employers have an increasing problem of finding people for jobs that have been created.
Employment in larger-than-small firms increased by 2.8 percent year on year. Up to 6,359.3 thousand impressions. Persons – GUS reported. That’s about 21 thousand. More than the month of May and by 173 thousand. More than it was in June 2020. It has not been very high since April 2020, and compared to the pre-epidemic period, that is, with June 2019, it is only 35 thousand lower. Persons.
The reason for such high employee increases may be the epidemiological difficulties of employees from Ukraine and Belarus. 38 percent of workers are from Ukraine The newspaper “Rzeczpospolita” reported a month ago, that due to the restrictions imposed in Poland in connection with Covid-19, it has withdrawn or delayed its arrival in our country. From June 24, Poland took back Mandatory quarantine for 10 days For people coming from outside the Schengen area. This does not apply to people who have been fully vaccinated, but applies to those In Ukraine, there are only 3.2 percent.
“Increasingly better prospects for the labor market are demonstrated by, among other things, the increasing number of job offers published. According to Grant Thornton’s latest periodic report, in June, employers in Poland published as many as 312,000 new job offers on the Internet. This It is 6 percent more than in June of the pre-pandemic year 2019 and up to 28.5 percent more than the corresponding period last year” – Pekao Bank commentary wrote.
PKO BP analysts note that the data on wage growth is outpacing inflation, which should support consumption growth. I remember that In June, the inflation rate was 4.4 percent. yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy. , so wage dynamics in large firms was 5.4 percentage points higher. Percentage of price hike.
The inflationary trends in the economy may end up accelerating. The Monetary Policy Board has so far kept interest rates at record low levels, incl. Arguments about the negligible effect of wages on price increases. With the increasing wage dynamics, these arguments are little by little becoming obsolete.
ING Bank Śląski analysts commented: “Wage pressure is stronger than we expected. The odds of inflation hitting the NBP target again (below 3.5%) next year are decreasing.”