Since 2014, Kevin Smith of Crescat Capital has spent a big bet that the Chinese currency will collapse. of $136 million under its management. That crash hasn’t happened yet, but Smith says his big payoff is about to happen.
Why would this happen? The Chinese real estate market, which has experienced a boom in recent years, is facing increasing problems. together The Chinese government insists on the so-called zero-COVID policyOver and over again closing multi-million conglomerates with four catalysts. in addition to China’s central bank cuts interest ratesWhich, with worldwide increases, leads to an outflow of capital from China.
Juan is in a difficult situation, but that does not mean that he is in a hopeless situation
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Such forecasts – as Bloomberg notes – are not new, and the number of bears (predictors of a market crash) in China is very large. It is based primarily on the theory that Specific, because Chinese capitalism, controlled by the Communist Party, must sooner or later face systemic problems. It generated a huge amount of bad debts, Especially in Chinese constructionIt is to force the Chinese central bank to “print” large amounts of yuan, which in turn will lead to a significant decrease in the exchange rate of this currency.
However, Smith and other Chinese bears – as Bloomberg points out – are still in the minority. As economists from UBS, for example, predicted, “the scenario of China experiencing a large-scale financial crisis is not very realistic.”
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