Hot weather means lower productivity, he told economists from the Polish Economic Institute. In fact – they have nothing to tell, because the vast majority probably feel this dependence on their own skin. However, PIE analysts have compiled available and specific scientific knowledge on this topic in their latest publications. Importantly, as it is already known, rising temperatures reduce the potential of the entire economy.
13°C – What is the best temperature for economy?
As the researchers point out, rising temperatures have a negative impact not only on the productivity of individual employees, but also on entire economies. according to Based on research conducted by scientists at Stanford University Note that economies do best with an average annual temperature of around 13°C.
This relationship can be observed at least since 1960 almost all over the world – it operates in both poor and rich countries, both in agricultural countries and in those dominated by industry or services
– PIE experts write.
As reported at the beginning of 2021, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, The average annual air temperature in Poland in 2020 was 9.9 °C It was 1.6 degrees higher than normal for 1981-2010. “This year was rated very warm. It was 0.2 degrees cooler than the warmest year in the history of instrumental measurements, 2019” – IMGW Books.
Does the above-mentioned Stanford University research paradoxically mean that the Polish economy would benefit from much higher temperatures? Show Rather the opposite is true – above the aforementioned limit, productivity in the economy drops dramatically. American scientists have estimated that if climate change continues at the observed pace, average global income will fall by 23% by 2100. Compared to the no climate change scenario. It will also contribute to increasing global income inequality.
How does heat destroy the economy?
Why is high temperatures such a tragic problem for the economy? As reported by PIE experts, there are several possible causes. First, hot weather means lower returns. Economists cite estimates that show (after subtracting the impact of technological development) that a 1°C increase in global temperature translates into a 6% decrease in wheat yields, 7.4% in maize, and 3.1% in soybeans.
Extreme temperatures – PIE economists argue – are also associated with increased mortality and morbidity, and higher temperatures also increase the risk of some natural disasters, includingat. Floods caused by heavy rainfall.
We saw their destructive power last week in Germany and other European countries
– Economists write PIE, the flood in China’s Zhengzhou could easily be added to this list.
Sharp drop in productivity
Higher temperatures also reduce GDP by reducing employee productivity. As PIE analysts explain, it happens in two ways.
First of all, we simply work shorter in hot weather. US research from the local economy shows that the number of working hours begins to fall sharply if the maximum daily temperature exceeds 30 ° C.
In high temperatures, people often switch from work to leisure. At a temperature of 40 degrees, the daily time spent working on average is about 20 minutes shorter than at a temperature of 30 degrees. It is an estimate of the entire adult population (including retired, unemployed and people who are on vacation on a given day), that is, the decrease in working time among employees is higher
– PIE analysts explain, adding that heat has the biggest impact on supply work In agriculture, construction and industry, where a temperature rise of 30-40°C translates into an average decrease in the working day of about 80 minutes.
Secondly, boiling water is not boiling – high temperatures reduce the productivity of employees per hour.
Meta-analyses show that the optimum temperature for office work is around 22°C. At higher temperatures, performance begins to decline faster and faster. At 30 degrees, employee productivity drops by more than 9 percent, and at 35 degrees by about 17 percent. Compared to performance at optimum temperature
– PIE experts indicate.
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