Some Poles live from first to first
There is always a group of people who live from first to first, that is, those whose income coincides with expenses – explains the head of the KRD. The size of this group is variable and depends largely on the economic situation and the level of consumer optimism.
When we have economic growth, the mood is good, and a much larger group of consumers decides to live without stocking for a rainy day – notes KRD President Adam Łącki.
According to the head of the National Debt Registry, this is inThe increase in debt is already evident. Łącki reminded that from the end of May 2020 to the beginning of October 2021, the NBP reference rate was 0.1%.
“We borrowed voluntarily, when it comes to mortgage loans, that is, long-term and short-term loans – to pay the installments, or cash loans. The value of credits and loans granted in 2021, compared to 2020, increased strongly ”- he explains.
The Poles borrowed to power
Łącki notes that, for example, banks and SKOK granted housing loans in the amount of PLN 88.69 billion (+ 40.1% per year), installment loans – PLN 18.03 billion (+21, 4 percent), cash loans – PLN 66.64 billion (+29.1 percent). In turn, loans granted by lending companies amounted to 7.20 billion PLN (+ 56.2%).
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Despite these significant increases, loans have been repaid well, and the percentage of bad loans has clearly decreased or remained at a similar level, but with a downward trend. He added that Swiss franc housing loans were an exception.
In their case, the percentage of non-performing loans is still increasing – while in February 2020 it was 3.49%, and in February 2022 it was already 5.70%. And it was February that brought a significant increase (from 5.34 percent) – indicated the President of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
As for loans in zlotys, the percentage at risk of repayment has remained unchanged since the beginning of December (1.75%) – a change already, “because it was declining systematically, albeit slowly, before”.
The expert noted that the downward trend was reflected in cash loans – Since January, the proportion of those who did not receive their salaries on time has started to increase from 9.66 per cent. up to 9.83 percent
He explained that “about 90,000 borrowers who borrowed during this period are the ones who also borrowed in cash or bought goods in installments, in addition to the mortgage.”
He noted that the size of the pool of people who will stop repaying loans depends, among other things, on the extent to which their current income exceeds their expenditures and how much reserve they can use to pay off the increased loan installments. He stressed that “the increase in other expenses is also important because it may consume the surplus and premiums. The level of savings plays an important role.”
Many analyzes point to rising inflation, as well as rising energy, fuel and food prices as contributing factors to an increase in the cost of living.
“You should also remember that our income is also growing,” – he said. In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), that is, the main measure of inflation in Poland, increased by 9.4%. On an annual basis, wages in the business sector 9.5 per cent.
Interesting situation in February
In February, the situation was more interesting – the CPI was at the level of 8.5%. The wage increase in the industry was 11.7% which is much higher than inflation rates. He pointed out that it is difficult to predict what this relationship will look like in March, because the Central Statistical Organization will release wage data on April 21, and so far we know that prices rose by 10.9%.
Less optimistic data comes from the Statistical Portfolio of the Pole study – only half of Poles have savings, of which 48 percent of this group declared that it decreased during the pandemic; 42 percent expected they would continue to shrink. “Already at the end of last year, before increases in electricity, gas and fuel, Poles estimated that the cost of living was high (63%) or very high (25%). At that time, 36% of respondents declared that after paying the bills, their farming families It has an amount of no more than 1,000 zlotys. Only 14 percent indicated a surplus of more than 4,000 zlotys “- stated.
And in the absence of money to pay all the needs, the respondents stated that they “will pay first the rent and electricity, and only after that the mortgage installments, and fourth place for installments or cash loan installments.”
He pointed out that, “Undoubtedly, the worst situation would be those who are already multi-debtors, that is, they have at least three creditors.” He added that these debtors included in KRD There are about 580,000 (about a quarter of the number) and they have about 22 billion PLN to donate.
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