- Rachel Schreier
- BBC News Health Correspondent
According to scientists monitoring the epidemic, a new study suggests that the UK vaccination program could break the link between the Covit-19 and mortality cases.
A survey by Imperial College London found that the number of infections had dropped by two-thirds since February.
Since then, the number of cases has remained stable. But what is noteworthy is that the number of deaths continues to decline.
The government-commissioned survey, based on Govt-19 tests, selected 140,000 people to represent the UK population.
In this group, 227 people tested positive for the virus from March 11 to 30 (0.2% of cases, or one in 500).
During the previous trial, from February 4 to 23, the infection rate was higher: one in 200 people had the virus.
The new results indicate a two-thirds drop in cases in the country.
In the previous measurement, scientists attributed the tight lock to the advancement of numbers, not the vaccine.
But scientists are now reducing deaths – more and more segregated from the number of cases – that is the result of vaccines, explained Stephen Riley, a professor at Imperial College London, on radio.
“Since September (2020), we have a good link between hospitalization and deaths and epidemics,” he said.
“But what we are reporting today is that if you look at this method from January, you’ll see a very different difference. We think the vaccination program is a sign of how it is breaking the strong connection that existed before the pattern of infections. The method of death and hospitalization.”
Again, numbers help to understand the end.
Since the beginning of March, the number of daily Govt-19 cases in the UK has ranged from 5,000 to 6,000. During the same period, the number of daily deaths continued to fall from an average of 200 to less than 50 deaths.
The most common infections in children
After a significant drop between February and March, Riley said the cases were “almost stable” over a period of about three weeks until the end of March.
Until the end of March, scientists estimated the virus’ reproduction number (called “R”) during that period, which meant that the epidemic was stable, but not declining.
Remember: A “R” greater than 1 indicates an outbreak of infection. When less than 1, the logic is reversed: it recedes.
“Since the first easing in the UK, with the opening of schools on March 8, 2021, the fall rate of new events has dropped significantly,” the report says.
Since then, infections have been more prevalent in primary and middle school-aged children (ages five to 12) and over 65, the Imperial team said, “compatible with vaccine effects”.
Riley says this “reflects increased social interaction” with the population, and part of it is related to the reopening of schools.
The expert celebrated the fact that infection rates did not rise when schools reopened, despite the fall reduction.
Even with vaccination, he says, it is a possibility.
Henceforth, the professor warns that the authorities should carefully monitor the outcome of restrictions and locks in the UK. The nation is in the process of reopening its economy, but this reopening is taking place gradually – some sectors will be able to resume their operations only if certain vaccination targets and epidemics are achieved.
Riley hopes that the rapid delivery of the vaccine will lead to a new spike in increased social contact cases.
Questions about vaccines
More than 5.6 million people in the UK have already been fully vaccinated with the two doses, while 31.7 million have received the first dose.
A new guideline was released on Wednesday (07/04) recommending that children under the age of 30 receive a vaccine other than Oxford-Astrogeneneka, after a study found a possible link between immunodeficiency and rare blood clots.
The UK drug regulator said there was no evidence that the injection caused the clots, but there appears to be new evidence that there was some sort of relationship.
Some European countries have banned the use of the astrogenic vaccine, and the EU drug regulator said it should list abnormal blood clots as possible “very rare” side effects of the vaccine.
Experts and politicians are trying to reassure people that blood clotting episodes are very unusual. The United Kingdom is committed to a plan to vaccinate all adults by the end of July.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called on the public to continue receiving the AstraZeneca vaccine. On Twitter, he said it had “already saved thousands of lives” and that “people should continue to have full confidence in vaccines.”
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