On Thursday, gains dominated European stock exchanges. German stock index Dax 0.78 percent profit, while we have wig 20 as much as 2.35 percent EUR/USD exchange rate In contrast, it approached the maximum on November 15th and is still above 1.04 USD per EUR.
Expert: The Ifo Index is optimistic
On Thursday we learned about the Ifo Index. The current business situation deteriorated slightly to 93.1 points, but the outlook for the next six months improved significantly (from 75.9 to 80 points). The Ifo Index indicates that companies are seeing some improvement in the economic environment. In recent weeks, the threat of gas rationing has decreased, and the German government has dramatically increased aid packages. In addition, the lack of supply has decreased ”- notes Łukasz Zembik. As a result, the very significant discrepancy between a rather solid assessment of the current business situation and the pessimistic expectations of entrepreneurs has decreased.
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The main business climate index rose to 86.3 points. According to Zembik, this reflects the fact that although a recession is likely in Germany, there have been some signs of abating recently, indicating thatThere will not be a collapse of the economy as in the case of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 or after the outbreak of the epidemic..
Gas supplies are no longer the problem that seemed in recent months
Gas storage facilities in Germany are filled to capacity, with high supplies and great savings. The weather is favorable so far. All of this makes gas rationing unlikely for the time being. Second, the federal government’s aid packages are now so large that they have largely offset the increase in energy import costs. “This stabilizes the economy, although in the long run large expenditures burden the budget and push up inflation,” the expert notes.
Obviously, supply bottlenecks have eased. While About 80% at its worst. Many German manufacturers complained that their production was hampered due to shortage of raw materials, In November, that number dropped to 59.3 percent.
The European Central Bank plans to increase interest rates in the eurozone
The report of the October meeting of the ECB Council, which we also learned on Thursday, confirms this There are likely to be more rate hikes in the Eurozone. At the same time, we haven’t received any hints about the pace of further monetary tightening. The ECB plans to continue to address the risk of unstable long-term inflation expectations and the possibility of a wage price spiral.
German GDP growth in the third quarter is higher than expected
Thursday’s upbeat data is complemented by data from Friday. Today we found out German GDP in the second quarter of 2023 rose (slightly above expectations) by 1.2%. On an annual basis and 0.4 percent. quarter to quarter. The mood of German consumers is also slightly improving. The sentiment index for December (Gfk) rose to -40.2 points against -41.9 points from the previous reading, although expectations were more optimistic (-39.6).
The data from Germany is noteworthy in the context that the zloty exchange rate has been moving in the same direction as the euro lately, and as experts emphasize – In 2023, we are facing a slowdownWhich will be caused by the bad situation in Germany and the Eurozone in general. whatever Signs are that things are better in Germany than they seem, suggesting that the coming months will also look a little better in Poland..
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