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Weather forecast for July and August. A powerful storm front slid across Poland. What weather awaits us in the summer?

Weather forecast for July and August.  A powerful storm front slid across Poland.  What weather awaits us in the summer?

Thunderstorms, strong winds, and heavy rain, including hail. It’s sweeping Poland deep from. Thanks to him, the weather in mid-June feels more like autumn than summer. However, this is the norm, says Grzegorz Walijewski, an expert at IMWM-PIB. It also reveals the weather that awaits us during the holidays.

Waving – also over Poland – the cold front is responsible for the aura we currently have outside the window. Throughout Poland, but mainly through its eastern part, storm formations are transmitted – well-developed and scattered single storm cells. They are accompanied by short-term heavy rains and hail, up to 2-4 cm in diameter. We talk to Grzegorz Walijewski, a spokesperson for the National Research Institute’s Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, about whether these phenomena are normal at this time of year, what distinguishes them and whether they are really dangerous.

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Anna Kowalska: Most of us received a notification from the RCB on Monday for thunderstorms and strong winds. Were these alerts necessary?
GRZEGORZ WALIJEWSKI: naturally. They are sent based on our expectations and warnings, and they were very accurate. A second level warning was issued for the entire eastern part of the country, and rightly so, because our system, which takes into account both satellite and ground measurements, indicated rainfall of up to 25 liters per square meter, while local gusts of wind were like up to 90 km / time. Such winds pose a great threat to our health and life, they can smash and uproot trees and damage buildings. Even at low values, the firefighters are already full.

What is responsible for this weather?
Cold front. More precisely, three sources of these phenomena can be identified. One is the so-called convergence lines – they form in front of the front where winds from two different directions meet, resulting in stronger winds. The source of storms is also the frontal region of the cold front. Finally, the colder air mass itself, which follows this front, is unstable, and storm cells also form there.

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Storm cells, meaning…?
A storm cell is actually a place where a storm forms – a dangerous weather phenomenon with lightning, rain, strong winds, sometimes tornadoes and often hail. In general, for a storm to arise, you need “fuel”. Moisture is such a “fuel” here. When conditions are right, clouds called cumulus, with upward and downward currents in them, form. A cloud with a vertical structure is formed – several hundred meters high up to 10, 12 or 14 km. This is a storm cell. We are talking about a super storm when this height is greater, above 12-14 km. These processes typical of a thunderstorm – precipitation, lightning, wind, hail – occur very intensely in it. There can also be such cells in the foreground – they are connected to each other, one next to the other, and they move across the area, then we are talking about the air front. When you looked at the radar on Monday, you can also see the formations that formed the line. Often they are several tens or even several hundred kilometers in length. There are also arc clouds, that is, shelves – very dangerous for sailors. When we are in a lake – especially a big lake – and we see such a cloud, we have to run to the port or shore very quickly, because a storm dam can form. Of course, you can go further and include other types of convective systems: arc echo, derecho, training storms … But the most important thing for a layman is that if there are storms and strong winds, be careful and do. Do not ignore the warnings issued by the IMWM-PIB. It will be posted often.

Is such inclement weather something special at this time of year?
No, this is very normal. At this time of year, air flows over Poland, which is very unstable, which creates good conditions for convective processes. Simply put: for storms. More high clouds are formed, and from these clouds it rains heavily, strong discharges or gusts of wind may also appear. and cold. This hail also occurred on Monday, and our meteorologists estimated it could be up to 5cm in size. These are concrete balls that are also a threat to us. It is interesting that a few years ago this hail of 4-5 cm was a real thing, and now these sizes do not make a special impression on our weather forecasts, because they are becoming more and more frequent. Not only that, after all, a year and two years ago, hailstones were over 10 cm, including the maximum, from Tomaszo Mazowiecki, 14 cm in size … When this ball of hail falls, it is really dangerous.

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Can we then at least be satisfied with the improvement of the hydrological situation in the country…?
Such precipitation, when tens of millimeters of water fall in a very short time, and in a small area, is very violent. This was the case a few days ago in the province. Lower Silesia, but also Warmia and Mazury – there, in just 60 minutes, as much rain fell as it did during the whole month. A year ago, it was exactly the same in many places in Poland. Monthly precipitation decreased in less than 60 minutes, for example, on June 22, 2021 in Poznan, causing many floods and threats. Examples can be multiplied: Szczecin July 1, Warsaw June 24, Olsztyn, Torun, Bydgoszcz … Such rapid precipitation leads to a rapid increase in the water level in rivers, floods and floods, but the improvement in the hydrological situation as such is not visible, for sure Not in the long term. It should be noted that in recent days, more rain has occurred mainly in southern Poland, and in some places in eastern and northeastern Poland, while in the west there has been virtually no rain. As a result, hydrologic drought warnings are still in effect there, and there’s a problem: Not only is it bad in rivers, but also in fields.

What is the weather in summer?
Seasonal forecasts like the ones we release seven days in advance cannot be checked. The possibility of verifying forecasts for two days in advance is about 90-95 percent, for three to seven days: 70-75 percent. But IMWM-PIB specialists can boast of one of the best results in Europe for this type of forecast. And I would like to remind you that the climate in Poland – temperate, transitional and volatile – presents a really big challenge for weather forecasters.

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Cathy Begeon: Improving Sub-Seasonal Expectations

On the website you can check maps showing what July and August will look like. Our calculations – this is the fourth consecutive transfer for July 2022 – show that this month will have a higher-than-normal air temperature. So it must be warm – warmer than average for July from the past 30 years (and these were warm, too). As for the rainfall, it should be natural, as it will rain as much as it usually falls in July and will be all over the country. However, it must be emphasized that the precipitation will be rather stormy – this is even worse news.

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For August – it should have been cooler overall. The latest forecasts already confirm this, although they indicate that it will not be as great as previous forecasts indicated. In this latter calculation, we expect the air temperature in the southern and partly central part of the country to be above normal (ie the average of the past 30 years), while the northern part will be within the norm. So August will be cooler than July, but no tragedy: Warmer airflow can happen with the heat, too. These forecasts are in line with the general trend indicated, for example, in the reports of the IPCC or the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). For us, this means that in Poland we will have more and more flows of warm air – above 30 ° C – and often they will last more than five days. Everything indicates that this is what July and August of this year will look like.

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